Pre-tourney Rankings
Mountain West
2011-12


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
14 New Mexico 100.0%   5   26 - 6 10 - 4 26 - 6 10 - 4 +13.9      +5.5 48 +8.5 12 68.6 136 +12.4 22 +11.0 2
26 UNLV 99.9%   6   24 - 8 9 - 5 24 - 8 9 - 5 +11.6      +4.9 57 +6.7 19 75.7 29 +12.2 27 +9.4 3
46 San Diego St. 99.8%   7   24 - 7 10 - 4 24 - 7 10 - 4 +8.7      +3.6 81 +5.2 35 68.4 142 +12.7 21 +12.0 1
72 Colorado St. 71.2%   11   19 - 11 8 - 6 19 - 11 8 - 6 +6.8      +7.8 24 -0.9 200 64.7 244 +8.0 62 +8.2 4
75 Wyoming 0.1%   18 - 11 6 - 8 18 - 11 6 - 8 +6.7      +0.2 164 +6.5 21 56.3 339 +5.4 95 +4.5 6
134 Boise St. 0.0%   12 - 17 3 - 11 12 - 17 3 - 11 +2.3      +2.2 114 +0.2 167 66.0 211 +0.8 159 -1.2 8
143 TCU 0.0%   16 - 14 7 - 7 16 - 14 7 - 7 +1.7      +3.4 84 -1.7 224 72.0 73 +4.4 105 +7.1 5
173 Air Force 0.0%   11 - 16 3 - 11 11 - 16 3 - 11 -0.4      -0.9 196 +0.5 157 59.3 322 -0.5 174 -0.6 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
New Mexico 1.0 100.0
UNLV 3.0 100.0
San Diego St. 1.0 100.0
Colorado St. 4.0 100.0
Wyoming 6.0 100.0
Boise St. 7.0 100.0
TCU 5.0 100.0
Air Force 7.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0
New Mexico 10 - 4 100.0
UNLV 9 - 5 100.0
San Diego St. 10 - 4 100.0
Colorado St. 8 - 6 100.0
Wyoming 6 - 8 100.0
Boise St. 3 - 11 100.0
TCU 7 - 7 100.0
Air Force 3 - 11 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
New Mexico 100.0% 100.0
UNLV
San Diego St. 100.0% 100.0
Colorado St.
Wyoming
Boise St.
TCU
Air Force


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
New Mexico 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 5   0.0 0.6 4.2 34.8 40.7 17.0 2.6 0.2
UNLV 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 6   0.0 0.3 9.8 33.3 33.8 18.6 3.9 0.2 0.1 99.9%
San Diego St. 99.8% 0.0% 99.8% 7   0.0 0.2 7.3 35.8 34.4 17.9 4.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 99.8%
Colorado St. 71.2% 0.0% 71.2% 11   0.3 4.6 23.1 33.2 9.8 0.2 28.8 71.2%
Wyoming 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.9 0.1%
Boise St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
TCU 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
New Mexico 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 69.5% 36.2% 14.6% 6.4% 2.5% 1.0%
UNLV 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 58.5% 21.6% 8.7% 2.7% 0.9% 0.3%
San Diego St. 99.8% 0.0% 99.8% 46.8% 13.1% 4.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0%
Colorado St. 71.2% 10.3% 65.6% 21.3% 5.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boise St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TCU 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.7 0.1 29.1 70.8 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 3.7 0.1 34.6 65.3 0.0
2nd Round 95.6% 2.0 4.4 25.6 42.5 24.5 3.0
Sweet Sixteen 59.2% 0.8 40.8 44.1 13.7 1.4 0.1
Elite Eight 26.4% 0.3 73.6 24.4 2.0 0.0
Final Four 10.1% 0.1 89.9 9.9 0.1
Final Game 3.8% 0.0 96.2 3.8
Champion 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3